Nigeria Faces New Food Security Risks as El Niño Threatens Crop Yields and Raises Farming Costs

Nigeria’s agricultural sector could face additional pressure as the developing El Niño weather phenomenon threatens rainfall patterns, crop production and food availability across parts of West Africa.

The warning was issued by the International Fund for Agricultural Development in a report examining the risks posed by changing weather conditions, rising energy costs and increasing fertiliser prices.

According to Punch Newspapers, the report was unveiled at the opening of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP31, in Antalya, Türkiye.

The findings highlight the vulnerability of rain-dependent farming communities across Nigeria and other countries in the Sahel region.

Farmers Could Face Significant Crop Losses

IFAD identified a potential agricultural drought corridor extending from Senegal through Nigeria towards Ethiopia and Sudan.

According to the report, major El Niño events have historically contributed to rainfall deficits of between 20% and 35% in certain parts of the Sahel.

Under comparable conditions, yields of important staple crops such as maize, millet and sorghum could fall by approximately 15% to 30%.

Such reductions would place pressure on agricultural production and potentially increase the cost of food.

However, the report describes the forecast for the West African-Sahel region as having lower confidence.

The projected yield reductions are therefore potential risks, not confirmed crop losses for Nigeria.

Global Economic Losses Could Reach $11 Trillion

Beyond the agricultural sector, IFAD warned that the developing 2026/2027 El Niño event could produce substantial economic consequences.

Its analysis estimates that cumulative losses to the global economy could reach $11 trillion over the next five to six years.

The potential impact includes agricultural losses, damage to infrastructure, higher commodity prices and disruptions to international trade.

The estimate reflects a scenario involving widespread economic consequences rather than losses that have already occurred.

The report indicated that the weather phenomenon was expected to reach peak intensity between October 2026 and January 2027.

Its effects on food production and rural livelihoods could extend beyond the 2027 harvest period.

Rising Fertiliser and Energy Costs Add Pressure

Nigeria’s farmers already face significant operating expenses associated with fertilisers, transportation, energy and agricultural equipment.

The possible El Niño disruption comes at a time when higher input costs are making production more expensive for small-scale farmers.

If rainfall becomes less predictable, farmers may need additional irrigation, improved crop varieties and stronger climate-risk management practices.

These investments can be difficult to finance, particularly for smallholder farmers who have limited access to affordable credit.

Without suitable support, some producers may struggle to maintain their usual production levels.

Implications for Nigerian Consumers

A decline in agricultural production can affect food prices when supplies become insufficient to meet demand.

Staple crops such as maize and sorghum are important not only for direct household consumption but also as inputs for livestock feed and food processing.

If production costs increase, the impact may spread across the food value chain.

Households could face higher expenses, while food manufacturers and distributors may experience additional pressure on operating margins.

However, the eventual effect on food prices will depend on actual weather conditions, harvest outcomes, inventories, imports and domestic distribution costs.

Opportunities for Agricultural Investment

The report also highlights the importance of investing in agricultural resilience.

Irrigation infrastructure, improved storage systems, climate-smart farming techniques and more reliable weather information could help farmers respond to changing conditions.

Businesses providing agricultural technology, irrigation equipment, renewable energy systems and farm advisory services may find opportunities to support adaptation.

Greater investment in agricultural insurance and financing could also improve farmers’ ability to recover from weather-related losses.

The Bigger Picture

Nigeria’s food security depends heavily on the performance of its agricultural sector.

The latest IFAD warning reinforces the need for stronger climate preparedness, reliable agricultural infrastructure and sustainable financing for farmers.

Although the scale of potential El Niño impacts remains uncertain, early planning could help reduce exposure to extreme weather and protect agricultural livelihoods.

For policymakers and businesses, strengthening food production resilience is becoming increasingly important to economic stability, consumer welfare and long-term development.