Inflation eases to 15.43% amid food price surge

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 15.43 per cent in July 2026, but the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed renewed pressure on food prices, with food inflation accelerating sharply on a month-on-month basis.

The NBS disclosed this in its Consumer Price Index report for July 2026, released on Monday, showing that headline inflation fell by 0.48 percentage points from 15.91 per cent recorded in June.

However, food inflation, which has a direct impact on household welfare, rose to 5.56 per cent month-on-month in July, from 3.75 per cent in June. This represented a 1.82 percentage-point increase, according to the statistics agency.

The acceleration was driven by higher average prices of several food items, including crayfish, fresh pepper, onions, carrots, rice, water yam, tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger and plantain flour.

On a year-on-year basis, however, food inflation moderated significantly to 20.31 per cent in July, compared with 26.20 per cent in July 2025.

The NBS stated, “The Food inflation rate in July 2026 was 20.31 per cent on a year-on-year basis and stood at 26.20 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (July 2025). On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in July 2026 was 5.56 per cent, up by 1.82 percentage points from June 2026 (3.75 per cent).”

The development means that while the overall pace of annual price increases continued to slow, consumers faced a much faster increase in food prices during July compared with the previous month.

The statistics agency attributed the monthly increase to “the rate of change in the average prices” of the affected food products. The divergence between food and headline inflation was also reflected in the core inflation rate, which excludes volatile agricultural products and energy.

Core inflation fell to 14.97 per cent year-on-year in July, from 23.95 per cent a year earlier. On a monthly basis, core inflation slowed to 0.15 per cent from 1.66 per cent in June.

The NBS said, “The ‘All items less farm produce and energy’ or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, stood at 14.97 per cent in July 2026 on a year-on-year basis, a decline of 8.98 per cent when compared to the 23.95 per cent recorded in July 2025.”

Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index increased to 145.3 points in July, from 143.0 points in June, indicating a 2.2-point monthly increase in the index used to measure changes in the prices of goods and services.

The NBS said the July headline rate represented a slower increase in the general price level, with monthly headline inflation falling to 1.57 per cent, from 1.66 per cent in June.

“This means that in July 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in June 2026,” it stated.

The 12-month average headline inflation rate also fell to 16.89 per cent in July, from 29.10 per cent in July 2025.

Food prices, however, remained sharply uneven across the country. Adamawa recorded the highest annual food inflation at 51.36 per cent, followed by Katsina at 30.84 per cent and Zamfara at 30.65 per cent.

At the other end, Borno recorded negative 0.31 per cent, while Nasarawa and Kebbi posted 6.88 per cent and 12.50 per cent, respectively.

On a monthly basis, food inflation was highest in Adamawa at 17.02 per cent, Lagos at 13.48 per cent and Borno at 13.26 per cent, while Jigawa, Kebbi and Bauchi recorded declines.

The figures come amid continuing efforts by the Federal Government and monetary authorities to bring down inflation after the sharp price increases recorded following economic reforms introduced since 2023.