Food inflation falls to 14-year low

Nigeria’s food inflation rate fell to 8.89 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, the lowest level recorded in more than 14 years, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

Also, headline inflation eased marginally to 15.10 per cent in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, contrary to earlier projections by analysts that inflation could climb to 19 per cent in January.

But members of the Organized Private Sector cautioned against undue excitement over the marginal decline in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in January, which they attributed to improved food production and stability of the exchange rate.

The latest food inflation figure marks the first single-digit reading in 128 months and the lowest since August 2011, when food inflation stood at 8.66 per cent. From June 2015, when the rate rose to 10.04 per cent, food inflation remained in double digits for 128 consecutive months until December 2025.

Data from the bureau showed that food inflation fell from 29.63 per cent in January 2025 to 8.89 per cent in January 2026, a decline of 20.73 percentage points over one year. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation contracted by 6.02 per cent in January, compared with a 0.36 per cent decline in December 2025.

The NBS attributed the slowdown to reductions in the average prices of water yams, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon, and cassava tubers.

In the report, the bureau stated, “The food inflation rate in January 2026 was 8.89 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This was 20.73 percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in January 2025, which was 29.63 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in January 2026 was -6.02 per cent, down by 5.66 percentage points compared to December 2025, which was -0.36 per cent.”

On a 12-month average basis, food inflation stood at 20.29 per cent in January 2026, significantly lower than the 38.47 per cent recorded in January 2025. The moderation follows a prolonged inflation surge between 2022 and 2024. Food inflation rose from 23.75 per cent in December 2022 to 33.93 per cent in December 2023 and peaked at 40.87 per cent in June 2024.

It remained elevated at 29.63 per cent in January 2025 before easing gradually through the year, falling to 10.84 per cent in December 2025 and then to single digits in January 2026. The latest figure represents a drop of nearly 32 percentage points from the June 2024 peak.

Headline inflation

Headline inflation also eased marginally to 15.10 per cent in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, contrary to earlier projections by analysts that inflation could climb to 19 per cent in January.

The NBS said the January headline rate was 0.05 percentage points lower than the December figure. The Consumer Price Index declined to 127.4 in January from 131.2 in December, reflecting a 3.8-point decrease.

On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation was 15.10 per cent in January 2026, 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025. The latest reading is the lowest in five years and two months, since November 2020, when inflation stood at 14.89 per cent.

Month-on-month, the headline rate was negative 2.88 per cent in January, compared with 0.54 per cent in December, indicating that the average price level declined during the month.