Expert predicts uneven real estate growth in 2026

The Director of Research and Chief Investment Officer at Panterra Real Estate Group, Ayo Ibaru, has said that the real estate market in 2026 will see uneven submarket growth tempered by pre-election uncertainties.

Ibaru stated this recently during his presentation at the 2026 Nigeria Construction & Real Estate Market Outlook. The event, themed ‘Infrastructure Development: A Catalyst for Real Estate, Construction & Economic Growth’, was organised by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Nigeria Group in collaboration with the Nigerian Institution of Surveyors and the Nigerian Institute of Quantity Surveyors.

According to him, some analysts see infrastructure-led expansion and digital integration driving opportunities.

“The real estate market in 2026 will see uneven submarket growth tempered by pre-election uncertainties. Recent studies underscore the market’s resilience, contributing 5–6 per cent to the gross domestic product. This outlook draws on patterns where pre-election years often witness caution and a slowdown in transaction volumes. Analyses of past election cycles reveal that the 2019, 2015, and 2011 presidential elections each reflect sensitivity to electoral cycles,” he stated.

Ibaru highlighted that investment activity is characteristically hesitant and then selective, adding that the approach to the 2023 elections saw liquidity in certain submarkets. He emphasised that whether this represented genuine demand or speculative behaviour remains to be settled.

“A strengthening naira, announced inflation reduction, and relative forex stability are focus areas for the managers of Nigeria’s economy. And there are new considerations. For one, the United States is more willing to muscle its way into emerging markets. This could moderate transaction volumes while encouraging more liquid, lower-risk opportunities,” he stated.