Budget delays, electioneering threaten IMF’s 4.4% growth outlook

Analysts have highlighted stalled budgetary progress and pre-election politicking as some of the top risks to the upward review in the growth projections for Nigeria in 2026, as done by the International Monetary Fund in the past week.

The PUNCH reported that the International Monetary Fund projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 per cent in 2026 in the January 2026 edition of its biannual World Economic Outlook. According to its latest report, the IMF hinged growth across sub-Saharan Africa on Nigeria, as the sub-region is expected to strengthen to 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027.

“Growth is also expected to accelerate in sub-Saharan Africa, from 4.4 per cent in 2025 to 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027, supported by macroeconomic stabilisation and reform efforts in key economies,” the report partly read.

The IMF’s 2026 revised growth projection for Nigeria of 4.4 per cent broadly aligns with Afrinvest’s estimate of 4.3 per cent as captured in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook Report.

The projections by Afrinvest were predicated on what it considered to be ongoing strategic private-sector investments in telecommunications (5G network investments by MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa), oil & gas (Dangote refinery expansion and Tony Elumelu’s acquisition of a majority stake in SEPLAT), agriculture (KONIG Agriculture Ltd’s $42.0m mid-term investment in Ondo State), and finance & insurance (sector-wide recapitalisation) alongside carry-trade inflow prospects (with Nigeria’s elevated yields expected to attract high-yield-seeking foreign portfolio investors from Advanced Economies), which will be pivotal to Nigeria’s economic narrative in 2026.

EnterpriseNGR, a member-led professional policy and advocacy group, also projected a 4.49 per cent growth, which it said reflects a broad-based expansion across services, agriculture, trade, and telecommunications.