FIRS, Customs, three others generated N21tn in H1

The Federal Government earned about N21.22tn in revenue from the activities of five key revenue-generating agencies within the first half of 2025,

The earnings reflect intensified efforts to boost national income through aggressive collection strategies, tightened enforcement, and expanded operational reach to capture both taxable and non-taxable streams.

Despite this strong inflow, however, the government has continued to court foreign lenders for loans and grants — a move economists warn could worsen Nigeria’s debt burden and strain public finances in the long term.

Revenue Breakdown (January – June 2025)

Figures submitted to the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) showed that five major agencies collectively generated over N21tn in six months:

• Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS): N13.76tn

• Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC): N5.21tn

• Nigeria Customs Service (NCS): N2.02tn

• Ministry of Mines and Steel Development: N32.39bn

• Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC): N197.8bn from commercial operations (though its monthly report disclosed N6.96tn in statutory remittances).

The combined amount represents 42.23% of the N50.2tn revenue target set for FIRS, NUPRC, and NCS, and 58% of the government’s overall 2025 projection of N36.35tn. At this pace, the administration could surpass its annual fiscal targets if momentum holds.

Context: The 2025 Budget

Nigeria’s N54.2tn budget, tagged “Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity”, was passed on higher-than-expected revenue collections. It projects N36.35tn in total revenue, anchored on:

• an expanded tax base,

• enhanced customs operations,

• higher returns from government-owned enterprises, and

• crude oil assumptions of $75 per barrel, 2.06 mbpd output, and an exchange rate of N1,500/$1.

With N21.22tn already collected, the government is more than halfway to its revenue target.

Rising Debt Despite Stronger Revenues

Data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), however, shows Nigeria’s total public debt climbed to N149.39tn as of March 31, 2025 — up N27.72tn (22.8%) from N121.67tn a year earlier.

• Nigeria’s total debt to the World Bank reached $18.23bn by March 2025, up $420m in just three months.

• Of this, $16.99bn came from the International Development Association (IDA), while $1.24bn remained with the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).

• The World Bank now accounts for 39.7% of Nigeria’s external debt stock ($45.98bn) and 81.2% of multilateral debt ($22.43bn).

Fresh borrowing plans already approved by lawmakers could add N38.24tn ($24.14bn equivalent) to the debt stock by 2026, potentially raising public debt to over N182.91tn.

New and Pipeline Loans

In 2025 alone, Nigeria secured about $1.08bn in loans, including:

• $500m for the HOPE for Quality Basic Education Project,

• $80m for the Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria 2.0 Project,

• $500m for the Nigeria Community Action for Resilience Programme, and

• $122.19m in grants for two projects.

In August 2025, the World Bank approved another $300m for the Solutions for Internally Displaced and Host Communities Project.

Additional facilities in the pipeline include:

• $250m for the Health Security Program in West and Central Africa – Phase III,

• $500m for the Building Resilient Digital Infrastructure for Growth Project, and

• $500m for the Nigeria Sustainable Agricultural Value Chains for Growth Project.

If approved, these will push World Bank commitments between June 2023 and December 2025 to $9.65bn (N14.82tn).

Economists Weigh In

• Aliyu Ilias (CSA Advisory): Warned that debt has ballooned from N87tn under Buhari to N149tn under Tinubu, with fears it could approach N180tn. He argued that with reported revenue surpluses, the administration should not be borrowing at this scale. He also cautioned that debt servicing is crowding out capital spending, limiting job creation, fueling inflation, and weakening FX stability.

• Adewale Abimbola (Economist): Noted that World Bank loans are mostly concessional with low interest and long tenors. Borrowing isn’t inherently bad, he said, but effectiveness depends on whether funds are channelled into projects with medium-term revenue prospects.

• Dr. Muda Yusuf (Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise): Described the N21tn revenue as a positive signal that the economy is recovering and reforms are working, particularly in the NNPC. However, he stressed that strong revenues should reduce the scale of borrowing and ease debt servicing pressures.