NBS to ‘normalise’ December inflation data over projected spike

The National Bureau of Statistics has said that it would ‘normalise’ Nigeria’s inflation data for December 2025 over a projected spike in last month’s Consumer Price Index.

This was disclosed on Monday during a virtual stakeholders engagement convened by the NBS and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group

NBS explained that the expected spike in inflation is driven by technical base effects linked to the recent rebasing of the inflation series rather than changes in economic fundamentals.

The PUNCH reported that multiple analysts have projected a spike in the headline inflation for December on the back of base effects. Projections ranged from 31.4–32.4 per cent year-on-year.

Providing the official position of the Bureau, Statistician General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of NBS, Adeyemi Adeniran, explained that the projected December spike stems from the rebasing of the CPI, which adopted 2024 as the new base year after a 15-year gap from the previous 2009 base.

He emphasised that base effects are a common feature of statistical practice, particularly in index-based measurements.

“Following the rebasing exercise and the methodology adopted for December 2025, a significant artificial spike in the inflation rate is expected, as some analysts have already projected. This spike arises from the base effect, with December 2024 equated to 100 following the rebasing.