GDP expected to rebound 4.22% in Q4 –Report

Analysts at CardinalStone expect Nigeria’s GDP to grow to 4.22 per cent in Q4 2025, an increase from 3.98 per cent in Q3. This signals a positive outlook for the year, as economic growth is projected to accelerate towards year-end.

This was disclosed in its Macro Research note released on Tuesday, following the latest GDP data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The PUNCH reports that Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, marking a slight improvement over the 3.86 per cent recorded in the same period of 2024 but a decline compared to the 4.23 per cent in Q2’25.

Reacting to the economic data, CardinalStone said the dip in the Q3’25 GDP had been anticipated, given softer oil output, a consequence of fading supportive base effects.

However, a rebound is anticipated in the last quarter of the year, which is expected to be driven by improving macroeconomic conditions.

“The recently released PMI numbers for November 2025 showed a strong and broad-based expansion in aggregate economic activities. We perceive that this robust output is likely to translate into strong GDP numbers for Q4’25. Similarly, with macroeconomic conditions improving, we expect this to further filter into strong GDP numbers. Overall, we forecast Q4’25 GDP at 4.22 per cent, translating into a full-year 2025 growth of 3.92 per cent,” the economic update indicated.

On the performance of the economy in the third quarter, the analysts said oil production moderated in the period under review to 1.64 mb/d (vs. 1.68 mb/d in Q2’25), due to scheduled maintenance activities carried out at some upstream facilities and delays in the commencement of operations at OMLs 71 and 72.